A shake and a surge: Assessing the possibility of an earthquake-triggered eruption at Steamboat Geyser
Bibliographic record
Abstract
When and why earthquakes trigger volcano and geyser eruptions remains unclear. In September 2022, Steamboat Geyser in Yellowstone, USA erupted 8.25 hours after a local M3.9 earthquake—an improbable coincidence based on the geyser’s eruption intervals. We leverage monitoring data from the surrounding geyser basin to determine if the earthquake triggered this eruption. We calculate a peak ground velocity of 1.2 cm s−1, which is the largest ground motion in the area since Steamboat reactivated in March 2018 and exceeds a threshold associated with past earthquake-triggered geyser eruptions in Yellowstone. Despite no changes in other surface hydrothermal activity, we found abrupt, short-lived shifts in ambient seismic noise amplitude and relative seismic velocity in narrow frequency bands related to the subsurface hydrothermal system. Our analysis indicates that Steamboat’s eruption was likely earthquake-triggered. The hours-long delay suggests that dynamic strains from seismic waves altered subsurface permeability and flow which enabled eruption.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".