Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Stratospheric wave reflection events involve the upward propagation of planetary waves, which are subsequently reflected downward by the stratospheric polar vortex. This phenomenon establishes a connection between the large-scale circulations in the troposphere and in the stratosphere. Here, we investigate wave reflection events characterised by an enhanced difference between poleward eddy heat flux over the Northwest Pacific and equatorward eddy heat flux over Canada. Previous research has pointed to a link between these events and anomalies in the tropospheric circulation over North America, with an associated abrupt continental-scale surface temperature decrease over the same region. In this study, we aim to elucidate the dynamical mechanisms governing this chain of events. We find that anomalies of meridional eddy heat flux over the Northwest Pacific and Canada change sign before and after reflection events. A westward-propagating ridge, associated with a positive geopotential height anomaly, and the development of a trough downstream can explain this sign change. The trough advects colder-than-average air southwards in the lower troposphere over North America, leading to an abrupt temperature decrease close to the surface. This corresponds in the upper troposphere to negative and in the lower troposphere to positive anomalies of meridional eddy heat flux. The evolution of this large-scale pattern resembles the shift from a Pacific Trough to an Alaskan Ridge weather regime. Furthermore, stratospheric wave reflection events exert a far-reaching influence beyond North America on the tropospheric circulation across the Northern mid- and high latitudes. One example is the zonalisation and intensification of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream resulting in more frequent occurrences of windy extremes over Europe a few days after the temperature decrease across North America.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.019 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.021 | 0.018 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.147 | 0.108 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".