Design and Use of a Stratum-Based Yield Predictions to Address Challenges Associated with Spatial Heterogeneity and Sample Clustering in Agricultural Fields Using Remote Sensing Data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Machine learning (ML) models trained with remote sensing data have the potential to improve cereal yield estimation across various geographic scales. However, the complexity and heterogeneity of agricultural landscapes present significant challenges to the robustness of ML-based field-level yield estimation over large areas. In our study, we propose decomposing the landscape complexity into homogeneous zones using existing landform, agroecological, and climate classification datasets, and subsequently applying stratum-based ML to estimate cereal yield. This approach was tested in a heterogeneous region in northern Morocco, where wheat is the dominant crop. We compared the results of the stratum-based ML with those applied to the entire study area. Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery were used as input variables to train three ML models: Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Multiple Linear Regression. The results showed that the XGBoost model outperformed the other assessed models. Furthermore, the stratum-based ML approach significantly improved the yield estimation accuracy, particularly when using landform classifications as homogeneous strata. For example, the accuracy of XGBoost model improved from R2 = 0.58 and RMSE = 840 kg ha−1 when the ML models were trained on data from the entire study area to R2 = 0.72 and RMSE = 809 kg ha−1 when trained in the plain area. These findings highlight that developing stratum-based ML models using landform classification as strata leads to more accurate predictions by allowing the models to better capture local environmental conditions and agricultural practices that affect crop growth.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".