Domestic and Global Monetary Policy Interactions with the Kuwaiti Stock Market: An Econometric Investigation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study investigates the cointegration and causality relationships between Kuwaiti stock prices, domestic monetary aggregates (M0, M1, M2, M3), and the U.S. Federal Funds Rate, utilizing quarterly data from 2003 to 2023. The research identifies long-term and short-term dynamics among these variables through unit root tests, Engle-Granger and Johansen cointegration techniques, and Granger causality analysis. The findings reveal significant long-run equilibrium relationships between Kuwaiti stock prices and the broader monetary aggregates (M2 and M3), as well as the U.S. Federal Funds Rate, indicating that both domestic monetary conditions and global monetary policies are crucial drivers of stock market performance. The Granger causality results further indicate bidirectional causality between stock prices and broader monetary aggregates (M2, M3), while revealing unidirectional causality from M0 and the U.S. Federal Funds Rate to stock prices. This suggests that changes in the monetary base (M0) and U.S. interest rates significantly influence stock market movements in Kuwait, but not vice versa. These results have important implications for policymakers and investors, highlighting the need to consider both domestic and international monetary factors in decision-making processes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".