Predictive gene expression signature diagnoses neonatal sepsis before clinical presentation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Neonatal sepsis is a deadly disease with non-specific clinical signs, delaying diagnosis and treatment. There remains a need for early biomarkers to facilitate timely intervention. Our objective was to identify neonatal sepsis gene expression biomarkers that could predict sepsis at birth, prior to clinical presentation. METHODS: Among 720 initially healthy full-term neonates in two hospitals (The Gambia, West Africa), we identified 21 newborns who were later hospitalized for sepsis in the first 28 days of life, split into early-onset sepsis (EOS, onset ≤7 days of life) and late-onset sepsis (LOS, onset 8-28 days of life), 12 neonates later hospitalized for localized infection without evidence of systemic involvement, and 33 matched control neonates who remained healthy. RNA-seq was performed on peripheral blood collected at birth when all neonates were healthy and also within the first week of life to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs). Machine learning methods (sPLS-DA, LASSO) identified genes expressed at birth that predicted onset of neonatal sepsis at a later time. FINDINGS: Neonates who later developed EOS already had ∼1000 DEGs at birth when compared to control neonates or those who later developed a localized infection or LOS. Based on these DEGs, a 4-gene signature (HSPH1, BORA, NCAPG2, PRIM1) for predicting EOS at birth was developed (training AUC = 0.94, sensitivity = 0.93, specificity = 0.92) and validated in an external cohort (validation AUC = 0.72, sensitivity = 0.83, and specificity = 0.83). Additionally, during the first week of life, EOS disrupted expression of >1800 genes including those influencing immune and metabolic transitions observed in healthy controls. INTERPRETATION: Despite appearing healthy at birth, neonates who later developed EOS already had distinct whole blood gene expression changes at birth, which enabled the development of a 4-gene predictive signature for EOS. This could facilitate early recognition and treatment of neonatal sepsis, potentially mitigating its long-term sequelae. FUNDING: CIHR and NIH/NIAID.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".