Updated Forecast for TRAPPIST-1 Times of Transit for All Seven Exoplanets Incorporating JWST Data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The TRAPPIST-1 system has been extensively observed with JWST in the near-infrared with the goal of detecting atmospheric transit transmission spectra of these temperate, Earth-sized exoplanets. A byproduct has been much more precise times of transit compared with prior available data from Spitzer, Hubble Space Telescope, or ground-based telescopes. In this note we use 23 new timing measurements of all seven planets in the near-infrared from five JWST observing programs to better forecast and constrain the future times of transit in this system. In particular, we note that the transit times of TRAPPIST-1h have drifted significantly from a prior published analysis by up to tens of minutes. Our newer forecast has a higher precision, with uncertainties ranging from 7 to 105 s during JWST Cycles 4 and 5. This forecast will help to improve planning of future observations of the TRAPPIST-1 planets, while we postpone a full dynamical analysis to future work.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".