Conserving genetic diversity hotspots under climate change: Are protected areas helpful?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The conservation of genetic diversity is a major target of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework and of the EU Nature Restoration Law, as it provides populations with the potential to evolutionary adapt to the ongoing environmental challenges. However, genetic diversity has often been neglected in the conservation planning, and data on the extent to which it is currently preserved by protected areas are scanty. Here, we assessed the efficacy of protected areas in preserving genetic diversity hotspots under global change. Focusing on the Italian peninsula inside the Mediterranean global biodiversity hotspot, we (i) investigated the patterns of genetic diversity of endemic terrestrial vertebrates, (ii) assessed how much genetic diversity is currently covered by protected areas considering both nuclear and mitochondrial DNA, and (iii) estimated the impact of projected range shifts caused by climate changes on the conservation of genetic diversity patterns. We found that protected areas cover <20 % of the areas of high genetic diversity for most of the investigated taxa, and fail to cover almost all multispecies genetic diversity hotspots. Furthermore, our results showed that mitochondrial DNA is not a reliable proxy for nuclear genome diversity, and its use in spatial conservation planning might lead to ineffective initiatives. Finally, we estimated that the extent of genetic diversity covered by protected areas will dramatically decline in the near future (2050). These results identify major gaps in current protection of genetic diversity and provide concrete guidelines to plan area-based conservation initiatives that meet biodiversity conservation targets for 2030. • The Italian network of protected areas covers only a very small amount of genetic diversity of terrestrial vertebrates. • mtDNA variation does not mirror patterns of nuclear DNA variation and its use might be misleading in conservation planning. • The amount of genetic diversity covered by protected areas will decrease in the future, as a consequence of climate changes. • Gaining spatially explicit genomic data is pivotal to increasing the long-term efficacy of area-based conservation strategies
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.019 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".