Robust evaluation of big data-driven winter weather traffic models using six weigh-in-motion sites as testbeds in Alberta's highway network
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study assesses the temporal transferability of winter traffic models using dummy variable regression at six Weigh-in-Motion (WIM) sites on Alberta's highway network. Models for two vehicle classes were developed using five years of traffic and weather data. To evaluate transferability, an additional year of data was collected, and two model structures—dummy variable and naive—were tested. The models’ estimation accuracy was measured using R² and five error metrics. Results indicate successful transferability of the models to a different year, with performance varying by road function and vehicle class. The study highlights that different model types might be needed for each vehicle class to ensure high temporal transferability. Additionally, the quality of the test data is crucial for obtaining reliable transfer results. This research addressed gaps in previous studies by collectively testing the temporal transferability of winter traffic models across an entire highway network.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it