The impact of climate and land cover change on the cryosphere and hydrology of the Mackenzie River Basin, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
High latitudes are predicted to continue warming at higher rates than the global average, with major implications for northern basins where concomitant deglaciation, permafrost thaw and vegetation shifts are expected. The Mackenzie River Basin, a globally significant basin, drains headwaters in the glaciated Canadian Rockies to the Arctic Ocean and is mostly underlain by permafrost. Here, we present scenarios of future change using the MESH distributed hydrological-cryospheric land surface model. MESH was forced with bias-corrected, downscaled RCM forcings and parameterized with a deep subsurface profile, organic soils, and glaciers. The model was validated against discharge, snowpack, and permafrost observations and used to simulate the hydrology and permafrost dynamics over the 21st century under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario with projected land cover change. The results show rapidly increasing rates of permafrost thaw; most of the basin will be permafrost-free by the 2080s. By late century, river discharges shift to earlier and higher peaks in response to projected increases in precipitation, temperature, snowmelt rates, despite increases in evapotranspiration from longer snow-free seasons. Baseflow discharges increase in winter, due to higher precipitation and increased basin connectivity from permafrost thaw resulting in enhanced groundwater flow. Subsurface moisture storage rises slightly but the liquid water fraction increases dramatically, increasing sub-surface runoff and river discharge. Canadian Rockies deglaciation reduces summer and annual discharge in the Athabasca and Peace headwaters. Downstream and northward of the mountain headwaters the direct impacts of climate change on river discharge dominate over those of changing land cover and glaciers.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".