An Explainable Artificial Intelligence Text Classifier for Suicidality Prediction in Youth Crisis Text Line Users: Development and Validation Study

BACKGROUND: Suicide represents a critical public health concern, and machine learning (ML) models offer the potential for identifying at-risk individuals. Recent studies using benchmark datasets and real-world social media data have demonstrated the capability of pretrained large language models in predicting suicidal ideation and behaviors (SIB) in speech and text. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to (1) develop and implement ML methods for predicting SIBs in a real-world crisis helpline dataset, using transformer-based pretrained models as a foundation; (2) evaluate, cross-validate, and benchmark the model against traditional text classification approaches; and (3) train an explainable model to highlight relevant risk-associated features. METHODS: We analyzed chat protocols from adolescents and young adults (aged 14-25 years) seeking assistance from a German crisis helpline. An ML model was developed using a transformer-based language model architecture with pretrained weights and long short-term memory layers. The model predicted suicidal ideation (SI) and advanced suicidal engagement (ASE), as indicated by composite Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale scores. We compared model performance against a classical word-vector-based ML model. We subsequently computed discrimination, calibration, clinical utility, and explainability information using a Shapley Additive Explanations value-based post hoc estimation model. RESULTS: The dataset comprised 1348 help-seeking encounters (1011 for training and 337 for testing). The transformer-based classifier achieved a macroaveraged area under the curve (AUC) receiver operating characteristic (ROC) of 0.89 (95% CI 0.81-0.91) and an overall accuracy of 0.79 (95% CI 0.73-0.99). This performance surpassed the word-vector-based baseline model (AUC-ROC=0.77, 95% CI 0.64-0.90; accuracy=0.61, 95% CI 0.61-0.80). The transformer model demonstrated excellent prediction for nonsuicidal sessions (AUC-ROC=0.96, 95% CI 0.96-0.99) and good prediction for SI and ASE, with AUC-ROCs of 0.85 (95% CI 0.97-0.86) and 0.87 (95% CI 0.81-0.88), respectively. The Brier Skill Score indicated a 44% improvement in classification performance over the baseline model. The Shapley Additive Explanations model identified language features predictive of SIBs, including self-reference, negation, expressions of low self-esteem, and absolutist language. CONCLUSIONS: Neural networks using large language model-based transfer learning can accurately identify SI and ASE. The post hoc explainer model revealed language features associated with SI and ASE. Such models may potentially support clinical decision-making in suicide prevention services. Future research should explore multimodal input features and temporal aspects of suicide risk.

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