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Record W4404162050 · doi:10.3390/jrfm17110502

Twitter Economic Uncertainty and Herding Behavior in ESG Markets

2024· article· en· W4404162050 on OpenAlexvenueno aff
Dimitrios Koutmos

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of risk and financial management · 2024
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicMarket Dynamics and Volatility
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsHerdingBusinessHerd behaviorFinancial economicsEconomicsGeography

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Attention to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing has grown in recent years. Even after the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) global pandemic, there has been a rise in financial instruments that are structured according to certain prescribed “sustainable finance” objectives. From a risk management perspective, and as we continue to see a rise in inflows into such instruments, it is important to appreciate that ESG markets will have a growing influence on our financial system and its development. In light of this, and using a sample of some of the most common and popular US-based ESG index funds, this study explores the extent to which herding behaviors are present in such markets. From a regulatory point of view, such behaviors are important to identify, given that they can lead to excess price volatility, bubbles, and other such market-destabilizing phenomena. In addition, this study builds a framework for exploring whether Twitter-based economic uncertainty, which is arguably a forward-looking indicator of investors’ expectations, can exacerbate herding behaviors in ESG markets. Overall, this study shows the following: (i) herding behaviors are present in ESG markets; (ii) rises in Twitter economic uncertainty can potentially exacerbate such herding; (iii) although ESG funds, like traditional asset classes, generally show a negative risk–return tradeoff, this can be driven by changes in Twitter economic uncertainty.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.011
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.004
Threshold uncertainty score0.013

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.011
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0020.002
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0040.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.012
GPT teacher head0.224
Teacher spread0.212 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations5
Published2024
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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