Carbon pricing and the commodity risk premium
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper examines whether the carbon pricing risk factor is priced in the cross-section of commodity futures. By analyzing unexpected pricing shocks in carbon emission allowances, carbon pricing risk is indeed priced in commodity futures, with a significant positive risk premium. The analysis of carbon pricing risk loadings reveals that individual commodities' sensitivities to carbon pricing risk vary. Additionally, commodity-specific characteristics, such as basis and hedging pressure, impact these risk loadings. Finally, I demonstrate that a portfolio of commodity futures constructed based on carbon pricing beta provides superior out-of-sample hedging performance for climate change risk compared to alternative hedge portfolios using equities or ETFs.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.008 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it