A conceptual digital twin framework for supply chain recovery and resilience
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Amidst escalating global supply system risks and interruptions, the imperative for fortified supply networks is evident. Organizations striving for competitiveness and resilience must adeptly recognize, comprehend, and address disruptions. This study presents a three-phase digital supply chain twin framework, leveraging discrete event simulation and neural networks to anticipate floods—a typical natural catastrophe and disruptive event—and predict recovery indicators. This aids supply chain (SC) managers in making informed decisions. In the first phase, machine learning algorithms, including logistic regression and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), were trained on Kerala India's precipitation data to predict floods. LSTM outperforms logistic regression, achieving flood prediction with 73 % recall, 75 % accuracy, and 84 % Area Under Curve-Receiver Operating Characteristics score. In the second phase, simulations replicate value chain breakdowns. A process flow logic-driven discrete event simulation within a real-world SC network emulates operational disruptions. FlexSim is employed to model service-level failures, influencing SC model performance based on the distribution center service level. The third phase employs simulated case scenario data to train a multilayer neural perceptron network (MLPNN) for predicting production network recovery post-disruptions. The MLPNN monitors the mean squared error (MSE) and disruptive inputs throughout training and validation, revealing consistent MSE reduction over recovery periods. The number of epochs needed to achieve a minimum MSE is used as a recovery indicator to predict service restoration time. Consequently, this study introduces a conceptual digital twin framework for catastrophic operations chain breakdowns and recovery prediction. The framework's output assists SC planners in shaping robust strategies by foreseeing disruptions and facilitating recovery.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.011 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.009 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".