Respiratory syncytial virus burden in children under 2 years old in understudied areas worldwide: gap analysis of available evidence, 2012–2022
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: We evaluated published evidence (2012-2022) on pediatric RSV burden in 149 countries within World Health Organization (WHO) regions of Africa (AFRO), Americas (AMRO, excluding Canada and the USA), Eastern Mediterranean (EMRO), Europe (EURO, excluding European Union countries and the UK), Southeast Asia (SEARO), and Western Pacific (WPRO, excluding Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea). Methods: Gap analysis on RSV-associated disease (hospitalizations, hospital course, mortality or case fatality, detection, and incidence) in children ≤2 years old, where hospitalization rates, hospital course, mortality rate, case fatality rate (CFR), and postmortem detection rates were summarized, by region, for each country. Results: Forty-two publications were identified covering 19% of included countries in AFRO, 18% in AMRO, 14% in EMRO, 15% in EURO, 18% in SEARO, and 13% in WPRO. Methods, case definitions, and age groups varied widely across studies. Of these 42 publications, 25 countries reported hospitalization rate, hospital course, mortality rate, CFR, and/or postmortem detection rate. RSV hospitalization rate (per 1,000 children per year/child-years) was higher among ≤3-month-olds (range, 38 in Nicaragua to 138 in the Philippines) and ≤6-month-olds (range, 2.6 in Singapore to 70 in South Africa) than in 1-2-year-olds (from 0.7 in Guatemala to 19 in Nicaragua). Based on 11 studies, in AFRO (South Africa), AMRO (Chile and Mexico), EMRO (Lebanon and Jordan), EURO (Israel and Turkey), and SEARO (India), hospitalized children ≤2 years old remained hospitalized for 3-8 days, with 9%-30% requiring intensive care and 4%-26% needing mechanical ventilation. Based on a study in India, community-based CFR was considerably higher than that in the hospital (9.1% vs. 0% in ≤3-month-olds; 7.1% vs. 2.8% in ≤6-month-olds). Conclusions: National and regional heterogeneity of evidence limits estimates of RSV burden in ≤2-year-olds in many WHO region countries, where further country-specific epidemiology is needed to guide prioritization, implementation, and impact assessment of RSV prevention strategies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.018 | 0.023 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".