Game-theoretic Statistical Inference: Optional Sampling, Universal Inference, and Multiple Testing Based on E-values
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This half-size MFO workshop brings together researchers in mathematical statistics, probability theory, machine learning, medical sciences, and economics to discuss recent developments in sequential inference. New sequential inference methods that build on nonnegative martingale techniques allow us to elegantly solve prominent shortcomings of traditional statistical hypothesis tests. Instead of p-values, they are based on e-values which have the added benefit that their meaning is much easier to communicate to applied researchers, due to their intuitive interpretation in terms of the wealth of a gambler playing a hypothetically fair game. Significant new contributions to this fast growing research area will be presented in order to stimulate collaborations, discuss and unify notation and concepts in the fields, and tackle a variety of open problems and address current major challenges.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.076 | 0.152 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.009 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.008 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.007 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".