Grey-Box Energy Modelling of Energy-Efficient House Using Hybrid Optimization Technique of Genetic Algorithms (GA) and Quasi-Newton Algorithms with Markov Chain Monte Carlo Uncertainty Distribution
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Understanding energy demands and costs is important for policy makers and the energy sector, especially in the context of residential heating and cooling systems. To estimate the thermal demand of a residential house, a grey-box modelling method with a resistance–capacitance (RC) analogy was implemented. The architectural properties used to parameterize the grey-box model were derived from a house used for research purposes in Vaughan, Ontario, Canada (TRCA-House A). The house model accounts for solar irradiance on exterior building surfaces, thermal conductivity through all surfaces, solar heat gains through windows, and thermal gains from ventilation. Two parallel short- and long-term calibrations were performed such that model outputs reflected the real-world operation of the house as best as possible. To define the unknown model parameters (such as the conductivity of building materials and some constant parameters), a hybrid optimization scheme including a genetic algorithm (GA) and the Quasi-Newton algorithm was introduced and implemented using Bayesian approximation and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The temperature outputs from the model were compared to the data retrieved from TRCA-House A. The final iteration of the model had an RMSE for interior zone temperature estimation of 0.22 °C when compared to the retrieved interior zone temperature data from TRCA-House A. Furthermore, the annual heating and cooling energy consumption values are within 1.50% and 0.08% of target values, respectively. According to these preliminary results, the introduced model and optimization techniques could be adjusted for different types of housing, as well as for smart control applications on both a short- and long-term basis.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".