Novel extensions to the Fisher copula to model flood spatial dependence over North America
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Taking into account the spatial dependence of floods is essential for an accurate assessment of fluvial flood risk. We propose novel extensions to the Fisher copula to statistically model the spatial structure of observed historical flood record data across North America. These include the machine-learning-based XGBoost model, exploiting the information contained in 130 catchment-specific covariates to predict discharge Kendall's τ coefficients between pairs of gauged–ungauged catchments. A novel conditional simulation strategy is utilized to simulate coherent flooding at all catchments efficiently. After subdividing North America into 14 hydrological regions and 1.8 million catchments, applying our methodology allows us to obtain synthetic flood event sets with spatial dependence, magnitudes, and frequency resembling those of the historical events. The different components of the model are validated using several measures of dependence and extremal dependence to compare the observed and simulated events. The obtained event set is further analyzed and supports the conclusions from a reference paper in flood spatial modeling. We find a nontrivial relationship between the spatial extent of a flood event and its peak magnitude.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".