Eco-Evolutionary Drivers of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Sequence Type 3 Expansion: Retrospective Machine Learning Approach
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Environmentally sensitive pathogens exhibit ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change that result in the emergence and global expansion of well-adapted variants. It is imperative to understand the mechanisms that facilitate pathogen emergence and expansion, as well as the drivers behind the mechanisms, to understand and prepare for future pandemic expansions. OBJECTIVE: The unique, rapid, global expansion of a clonal complex of Vibrio parahaemolyticus (a marine bacterium causing gastroenteritis infections) named Vibrio parahaemolyticus sequence type 3 (VpST3) provides an opportunity to explore the eco-evolutionary drivers of pathogen expansion. METHODS: The global expansion of VpST3 was reconstructed using VpST3 genomes, which were then classified into metrics characterizing the stages of this expansion process, indicative of the stages of emergence and establishment. We used machine learning, specifically a random forest classifier, to test a range of ecological and evolutionary drivers for their potential in predicting VpST3 expansion dynamics. RESULTS: We identified a range of evolutionary features, including mutations in the core genome and accessory gene presence, associated with expansion dynamics. A range of random forest classifier approaches were tested to predict expansion classification metrics for each genome. The highest predictive accuracies (ranging from 0.722 to 0.967) were achieved for models using a combined eco-evolutionary approach. While population structure and the difference between introduced and established isolates could be predicted to a high accuracy, our model reported multiple false positives when predicting the success of an introduced isolate, suggesting potential limiting factors not represented in our eco-evolutionary features. Regional models produced for 2 countries reporting the most VpST3 genomes had varying success, reflecting the impacts of class imbalance. CONCLUSIONS: These novel insights into evolutionary features and ecological conditions related to the stages of VpST3 expansion showcase the potential of machine learning models using genomic data and will contribute to the future understanding of the eco-evolutionary pathways of climate-sensitive pathogens.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".