The incidence of pancreatic cancer in women with a <i>BRCA1</i> or <i>BRCA2</i> mutation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The lifetime risk of pancreatic cancer in women with a germline mutation in BRCA1 and BRCA2 is not well established. In an international prospective cohort of female carriers of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations, the cumulative incidence of pancreatic cancer from age 40 until 80 years was estimated. METHODS: A total of 8295 women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation were followed for new cases of pancreatic cancer. Subjects were followed from the date of baseline questionnaire or age 40 years (whichever came last) until a new diagnosis of pancreatic cancer, death from another cause, or date of last follow-up. RESULTS: Thirty-four incident pancreatic cancer cases were identified in the cohort. The annual risk of pancreatic cancer between age 40 and 80 years was 0.04% for BRCA1 carriers and 0.09% for BRCA2 carriers. Via the Kaplan-Meier method, the cumulative incidence from age 40 to 80 years was 2.2% (95% CI, 1.1%-4.3%) for BRCA1 carriers and 2.7% (95% CI, 1.3%-5.4%) for BRCA2 carriers. Only two of the 34 cases reported a first-degree relative with pancreatic cancer (hazard ratio, 4.75; 95% CI, 1.13-19.9; p = .03). Risk factors for pancreatic cancer included alcohol intake and a history of diabetes. The 5-year survival rate for the 34 cases was 8.8%. CONCLUSIONS: The lifetime risk of pancreatic cancer is approximately 2% in women with a BRCA1 mutation and 3% for women with a BRCA2 mutation. The poor survival in hereditary pancreatic cancer underscores the need for novel antitumoral strategies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".