LAMP, informality and monetary growth rules in an emerging economy
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We develop a small open economy model interacting with a rest-of-the-world bloc, containing relevant emerging economies’ features: heterogeneous agents with one household type displaying limited asset markets participation (LAMP), and an informal sector. We show that monetary growth rules are stable regardless of the level of asset market participation, i.e., unlike standard interest rate rules, they avoid the inversion of the Taylor principle. Estimation results using data from Mexico reveal that specifications with money growth rules are empirically superior and shocks are amplified by the presence of LAMP. In contrast, the informal sector acts as a buffer, lowering the variability of aggregate and formal fluctuations through an expenditure switching effect, and by providing a flexible labour market adjustment mechanism.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it