Change in prevalence of smoking during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic among middle-aged and older adults in Canada: a cohort study of the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Objective: The primary objective was to evaluate the change in the prevalence of daily or occasional tobacco smoking during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic and to assess if socioeconomic factors were associated with changes in smoking. The secondary objective was to evaluate the association of smoking with adherence to public health measures. Methods: In this prospective cohort study, using Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging data (44 139 middle-aged and older-aged adults), the prevalence of smoking during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020) and prepandemic (2011-2018) was estimated using weighted generalised estimating equations. ORs and 95% CIs for the association between smoking and adherence to public health measures (a derived score) were estimated using multinomial logistic regression. Results: Time (during vs prepandemic) was a significant predictor of smoking (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.12; 95% CI 1.07, 1.17). The adjusted prevalence of smoking during the beginning of the pandemic was 11.2% (95% CI 10.1%, 12.4%), compared with the prepandemic prevalence of 10.1% (95% CI 9.1%, 11.2%), with p<0.001. Factors associated with an increase in smoking were male sex, being aged 55 to 74 years, residing in Ontario or British Columbia, immigrant background, belonging to a racialised group, higher income and being married/common-law relationship. Smoking was associated with increased odds of high adherence to public health measures (aOR 1.53; 95% CI 1.31, 1.78). Conclusion: Among middle-aged and older adults in Canada, there was a small increase in the adjusted prevalence of smoking early in the pandemic. Daily or occasional smoking was associated with greater adherence to public health measures.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".