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Record W4404958896 · doi:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103723

Neural network learning for nonlinear economies

2024· article· en· W4404958896 on OpenAlex
Julian Ashwin, Paul Beaudry, Martin Ellison

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of Monetary Economics · 2024
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicMonetary Policy and Economic Impact
Canadian institutionsUniversity of British Columbia
Fundersnot available
KeywordsEconomicsArtificial neural networkNonlinear systemKeynesian economicsComputer scienceArtificial intelligencePhysics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Neural networks offer a promising tool for the analysis of nonlinear economies. In this paper, we derive conditions for the stability of nonlinear rational expectations equilibria under neural network learning. We demonstrate the applicability of the conditions in analytical and numerical examples where the nonlinearity is caused by monetary policy targeting a range, rather than a specific value, of inflation. If shock persistence is high or there is inertia in the structure of the economy, then the only rational expectations equilibria that are learnable may involve inflation spending long periods outside its target range. Neural network learning is also useful for solving and selecting between multiple equilibria and steady states in other settings, such as when there is a zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate. • Neural network learning offers a promising tool for the analysis of nonlinear economies. • We derive conditions for the global stability of nonlinear REE under neural network learning and demonstrate their applicability when there is a target range for inflation. • Learnable REE may involve inflation spending long periods outside its target range. • Neural network learning is also useful in other settings, such as when there is a zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.327
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.001
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.058
GPT teacher head0.233
Teacher spread0.175 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it