Machine Learning for Early Detection of Cognitive Decline in Parkinson’s Disease Using Multimodal Biomarker and Clinical Data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Parkinson’s disease (PD) is the second most common neurodegenerative disease, primarily affecting the middle-aged to elderly population. Among its nonmotor symptoms, cognitive decline (CD) is a precursor to dementia and represents a critical target for early risk assessment and diagnosis. Accurate CD prediction is crucial for timely intervention and tailored management of at-risk patients. This study used machine learning (ML) techniques to predict the CD risk over five-year in early-stage PD. Methods: Data from the Early Parkinson’s Disease Longitudinal Singapore (2014 to 2018) was used to predict CD defined as a one-unit annual decrease or a one-unit decline in Montreal Cognitive Assessment over two consecutive years. Four ML methods—AutoScore, Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbors and Neural Network—were applied using baseline demographics, clinical assessments and blood biomarkers. Results: Variable selection identified key predictors of CD, including education year, diastolic lying blood pressure, diastolic standing blood pressure, systolic lying blood pressure, Hoehn and Yahr scale, body mass index, phosphorylated tau at threonine 181, total tau, Neurofilament light chain and suppression of tumorigenicity 2. Random Forest was the most effective, achieving an AUC of 0.93 (95% CI: 0.89, 0.97), using 10-fold cross-validation. Conclusions: Here, we demonstrate that ML-based models can identify early-stage PD patients at high risk for CD, supporting targeted interventions and improved PD management.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.008 | 0.014 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".