Discrepant Global Surface Ozone Responses to Emission- and Heatwave-Induced Regime Shifts
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Heatwaves have substantial but poorly quantified impacts on surface ozone photochemical regimes. As heatwaves of increasing severity occur, communities face more serious exposure to ozone, necessitating a more comprehensive understanding of the impact of heatwaves on the nonlinear response of ozone to its precursors for guiding policies in emission reductions. Here we estimate the spatiotemporal evolution of global ozone chemistry based on machine learning and in situ observations and show that emission changes and heatwaves alter ozone photochemical regimes, leading to diverse ozone changes across regions. Sustained emission reductions in East Asia decreased the ozone formation sensitivity to formaldehyde (HCHO) and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), counteracting the adverse high-temperature effect. Quantified results reveal that heatwaves increased the sensitivity of ozone to HCHO and PM 2.5, enhancing their positive contributions and causing increased ozone trends across most regions, with a global average anomaly of 9.4 μg/m 3 . Meanwhile, heatwave-induced PM 2.5 anomalies concentrated in wildfire-risk zones, coupled with increased HCHO, elevated downwind ozone levels. Specifically, the effects in wildfire-endangered western Canada and heatwave-exposed southeastern United States contributed to a chemically driven ozone increase of 0.18 μg/m 3 /month in Northern America. Our results demonstrate that more targeted and substantial regulation of volatile organic compounds will be beneficial in mitigating future intensifying climate penalty effects.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".