Peramalan Jumlah Produk Domestik Regional Bruto di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Barat Tahun 2024 Menggunakan Metode Dekomposisi Multiplikatif
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract: The capacity of a region to produce a good or service at a given time is measured by gross regional domestic product (GRDP). West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) Province plays an important role in the economic landscape in Indonesia. The purpose of this study is to determine the accuracy of forecasting and the feasibility of the methodology used to project the GRDP of West Nusa Tenggara Province in 2024. The data used is the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of West Nusa Tenggara Province for the quarters of 2014-2023. Forecasting using the Multiplicative Decomposition method. The results of forecasting the amount of Gross Regional Domestic Product in West Nusa Tenggara province in 2024 are 43091.76 (billion Rupiah) for the first quarter period, 44386.27 (billion Rupiah) for the second quarter period, 44870.79 (billion Rupiah) in the third quarter period, and in the fourth quarter period the prediction results are 45355.31 (billion Rupiah). The results of the MAPE calculation, using the multiplicative decomposition method, obtained a result of 3.84%, which means that the prediction accuracy level in the multiplicative decomposition method is very good. In this case, projecting and forecasting the value of Gross Regional Domestic Product in the future data is important for local governments in preparing development plans and economic policies. Keywords: GRDP, Forecasting, Multiplicative Decomposition Abstrak: Kapasitas suatu wilayah regional untuk memperoleh hasil suatu barang atau jasa pada waktu tertentu diukur dengan produk domestik regional bruto (PDRB). Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Barat (NTB) memainkan peran penting dalam lanskap ekonomi di Indonesia. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui keakuratan peramalan dan kelayakan metodologi yang digunakan untuk memproyeksikan PDRB Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Barat pada tahun 2024. Data yang digunakan adalah Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Barat untuk triwulan tahun 2014-2023. Peramalan menggunakan metode Dekomposisi Multiplikatif. Hasil peramalan jumlah Produk Domestik Regional Bruto di provinsi Nusa Tenggara Barat pada tahun 2024 secara berturut-turut adalah sebanyak 43091.76 (Milyar Rupiah) untuk periode Triwulan I, 44386.27 (Milyar Rupiah) untuk periode Triwulan II, 44870.79 (Milyar Rupiah) pada periode Triwulan III, dan pada periode Triwulan IV hasil prediksi adalah sebanyak 45355.31 (Milyar Rupiah). Hasil perhitungan MAPE, dengan menggunakan metode dekomposisi multiplikatif diperoleh hasil sebesar 3.84%, yang berarti tingkat akurasi prediksi pada metode dekomposisi multiplikatif sangat baik. Dalam hal ini, memproyeksikan dan meramalkan nilai Produk Domestik Regional Bruto di masa yang akan data menjadi hal yang penting bagi pemerintah daerah dalam perencanaan pembangunan dan kebijakan ekonomi. Kata kunci: PDRB, Peramalan, Dekomposisi Multiplikatif
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.011 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".