Hepatic real-world outcomes with obeticholic acid in primary biliary cholangitis (HEROES): A trial emulation study design
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Primary biliary cholangitis is a rare, progressive liver disease. Obeticholic acid (OCA) received accelerated approval for treating patients with primary biliary cholangitis in whom ursodeoxycholic acid failed, based on a surrogate endpoint of reduction in ALP. Analysis of the long-term safety extension with 2 external control groups demonstrated a significant increase in event-free survival in OCA-treated patients. This fully real-world evidence study assessed the effect of OCA treatment on clinical outcomes. APPROACH AND RESULTS: This trial emulation used data from the Komodo Healthcare Map claims database linked to US national laboratory, transplant, and death databases. Patients with compensated primary biliary cholangitis and intolerance/inadequate response to ursodeoxycholic acid who initiated OCA therapy were compared with patients who were OCA-eligible but not OCA-treated. The primary endpoint was time to the first occurrence of death, liver transplant, or hospitalization for hepatic decompensation, analyzed using a propensity-score weighted Cox proportional hazards model. Baseline prognostic factors were balanced using standardized morbidity ratio weighting. For the primary analysis, 4174 patients contributed 11,246 control index dates, and 403 patients contributed OCA indexes. Weighted groups were well balanced. Median (95% CI) follow-up in the OCA and non-OCA arms was 9.3 (8.4-10.6) months and 17.5 (16.2-18.6) months (weighted population; censored at discontinuation). Eight events occurred in the OCA arm and 32 in the weighted control (HR = 0.37; 95% CI = 0.14-0.75; p < 0.001). Effects were consistent for each component of the composite endpoint. CONCLUSIONS: We identified a 63% reduced risk of hospitalization for hepatic decompensation, liver transplant, or death in OCA-treated versus non-OCA-treated individuals. TRIAL REGISTRATION: HEROES; ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05292872.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".