Metabolomics-Based Machine Learning Models Accurately Predict Breast Cancer Estrogen Receptor Status
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Breast cancer is a global concern as a leading cause of death for women. Early and precise diagnosis can be vital in handling the disease efficiently. Breast cancer subtyping based on estrogen receptor (ER) status is crucial for determining prognosis and treatment. This study uses metabolomics data from plasma samples to detect metabolite biomarkers that could distinguish ER-positive from ER-negative breast cancers in a non-invasive manner. The dataset includes demographic information, ER status, and metabolite levels from 188 breast cancer patients and 73 healthy controls. Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) with a Random Forest (RF) classifier identified an optimal subset of 30 features-29 biomarkers and age-that achieved the highest area under the curve (AUC). To address the class imbalance, Gaussian noise-based augmentation and Adaptive Synthetic Oversampling (ADASYN) were applied, ensuring balanced representation during training. Four machine learning (ML) algorithms-Random Forest, Support Vector Classifier (SVC), XGBoost, and Logistic Regression (LR)-were evaluated using grid search. The Random Forest classifier emerged as the top performer, achieving an AUC of 0.95 and an accuracy of 93%. These results suggest that ML has great promise for identifying specific metabolites linked to ER expression, paving the development of a novel analytical tool that can minimize current challenges in identifying ER status, and improve the precision of breast cancer subtyping.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".