Polycythemia Vera Vs. <i>JAK2</i> Mutated or Wild-Type Essential Thrombocythemia: Clinical and Molecular Comparisons and Long-Term Outcome Among 2,010 Patients
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background A JAK2 mutation is detected in almost all patients with polycythemia vera (PV) and in ⁓50% of those with essential thrombocythemia (ET). The two diseases also share characteristic clinical and bone marrow morphological traits, suggesting they exist on a disease continuum rather than representing discrete entities. The objective of the current study was to compare clinical and genetic characteristics as well as long-term outcome between formally-defined PV vs. JAK2-mutated ET vs. JAK2-wild-type (WT) ET. Methods Study patients were retrospectively recruited from Mayo Clinic, USA databases (1967-2024). Diagnostic criteria were according to the International Consensus Classification (ICC; Blood 2022;140:1200). All study patients were fully annotated for JAK2, CALR, and MPL mutations while cytogenetic and additional next-generation sequencing (NGS)-derived mutation information was available in a subset of patients. Conventional statistical methods were employed for phenotypic comparisons and survival analysis. Results Among 2,010 study patients, 1,010 had PV, 617 (63%) JAK2-mutated ET, and 383 JAK2-WT ET (CALR 26%; MPL 3%; triple-negative 9%). Phenotypic comparisons revealed older age distribution in PV compared to JAK2-mutated ET (p=0.03) and the latter compared to JAK2-WT ET (p<0.01). Females were represented more in JAK2-mutated ET (69%), compared to both PV (49%; p<0.01) and JAK2-WT ET (54%; p<0.01). The frequencies of leukocytosis, palpable splenomegaly, constitutional symptoms, diabetes, hypertension, and abnormal karyotype were all significantly higher in PV, compared to both groups of ET, while JAK2-mutated compared to JAK2-WT ET displayed higher leukocyte count and incidence of hypertension. The incidences of arterial thrombosis at/prior to diagnosis were 14%, 16%, and 10% in PV, JAK2-mutated and WT ET, respectively (P=0.03), and venous thrombosis 14%, 13%, and 6% (p<0.01). After a median follow-up of 8.6 years, 632 (32%) deaths, 329 (16%) fibrotic progressions, 79 (4%) leukemic transformations, and 236 (12%) arterial and 202 (10%) venous thrombotic events were recorded, among all 2,010 study patients. Median overall survival was 19.3 years for PV vs. 17.8 years for JAK2-mutated ET vs. 23 years for JAK2-WT ET (p<0.01); however, the significant difference in favor of JAK2-WT ET was no longer apparent when analysis was adjusted for age and sex (p=0.15) and subsequently for other risk factors (p=0.86). All-inclusive multivariable analysis identified older age (p<0.01), male sex (p<0.01), higher leukocyte count (p<0.01), and arterial thrombosis history (p<0.01), but not the distinction between PV, JAK2-mutated, and JAK2-WT ET (p=0.9), to be independently associated with shortened survival. Leukemia-free survival was similar between PV and either JAK2-mutated (p=0.5) or JAK2-WT (p=0.1) ET. On the other hand, myelofibrosis-free survival was shorter in PV, compared to both JAK2-mutated (HR 1.8, 1.4-2.4; p<0.01) and JAK2-WT (HR 1.4. 1.0-1.8; p=0.03) ET. In multivariable analysis, older age (p<0.01), higher leukocyte count (p<0.01), PV vs. JAK2-mutated ET (HR 1.8; p<0.01), and JAK2-WT vs. JAK2-mutated ET (HR 1.6; p=0.01) were associated with a higher risk of fibrotic progression, with no difference noted between PV and JAK2-WT ET (p=0.4). Arterial thrombosis-free survival was similar between PV and JAK2-mutated ET (p=0.8). In univariate analysis, JAK2-WT ET vs. PV was associated with superior arterial thrombosis-free survival (p=0.02), but significance was lost when analysis was adjusted for arterial thrombosis history (p=0.1). Venous thrombosis-free survival favored JAK2-WT ET vs. PV (HR 0.3; p<0.01) and JAK2-mutated ET (HR 0.6; p=0.02) and the latter vs. PV (HR 0.6; p<0.01); the significant differences between PV and both groups of ET were sustained when analysis was adjusted for age, sex, and venous thrombosis history. Conclusions The current study highlights significant demographic and phenotypic differences between PV and JAK2-mutated ET. However, risk factor-adjusted overall, leukemia-free, and arterial thrombosis-free survival was not inferior in PV, compared to ET, regardless of the presence or absence of a JAK2 mutation in the latter. JAK2-WT ET was distinctly associated with a lower risk of venous thrombosis while JAK2-mutated ET appeared to be less vulnerable to fibrotic progression.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".