Identifying the factors influencing the development of bilateral investment treaties with health safeguards: a Machine Learning-based link prediction approach
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A network analysis approach, complemented by machine learning (ML) techniques, is applied to analyse the factors influencing Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) at the country level. Using the Electronic Database of Investment Treaties, BITs with health safeguards from 167 countries were charted, resulting in 534 connections with countries as nodes and their BITs as edges. Network analysis found that, on average, a country established BITs with six other nations. Additionally, we used node embedding techniques to generate features from the network, such as the Jaccard coefficient, resource allocation, and Adamic Adar for downstream link prediction. This study employed five tree-based ML models to predict future BIT formations with health inclusion. The eXtreme Gradient Boosting model proved to be superior, achieving a 64.02% accuracy rate. Notably, the Common Neighbor centrality feature and the Capital Account Balance Ratio emerged as influential factors in creating new BITs with health inclusions. Beyond economic considerations, our study highlighted a vital intersection: the nexus between BITs, economic growth, and public health policies. In essence, this research underscores the importance of safeguarding public health in BITs and showcases the potential of ML in understanding the intricacies of international treaties.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".