Assessing the Impact of Geopolitical Risk on Longevity Bond Pricing: Insights from Bayesian Multivariate Regression
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract This paper investigates the multivariate pricing of coupon longevity bonds (CLBs) using the Fama–French–Lee–Carter (FF–LC) five-vector model in the framework of Bayesian integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) in the presence of geopolitical risk (GPR). The variance-covariance and correlation matrices are utilized to capture the interdependence between factors. We prove the generalization of multivariate Bayesian INLA with the basic probability assignment which is utilized as a posterior uncertainty belief associated with the GPR uncertainty category (a rich representation of GPR uncertainty) that is an element of the frame of discernment in the CLB posterior estimation. INLA Bayesian principal component analysis (INLA-BPCA) is applied to the model prediction parameters generating a multivariate normally distributed posterior. The deviance information criterion (DIC) assesses optimal factor selection. The results show that the BPCA posterior gains a feature that allows for a balance between the goodness-of-fit and complexity in hierarchical model selection by incorporating the retained principal components (or the effective number of parameters) from the DIC formula. Furthermore, it is also evident in our results, that the DIC outperforms the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and Watanabe–Akaike information criterion (WAIC). The DIC is more suitable for Bayesian-based parametric models with high complexity. Lastly, the INLA-BPCA-DIC is applied to select the best longevity factors that yield a low longevity price of risk for insurers and practitioners, to attenuate the risks associated with investing in CLBs in the presence of geopolitical uncertainty shocks.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it