Dynamic connectedness between global geopolitical tension and flow of foreign remittances amid heightened geopolitical risk with application of NARDL estimation approach
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This empirical study examines the dynamic connectedness between global geopolitical tension (GPR) and the flow of foreign remittances (FR) in response to evolving global and strategic economic dynamics. The study employs the NARDL estimation model to assess the symmetric and asymmetric connectedness among key indicators influencing economic changes in BRIC economies. The study used quarterly frequency data from 1998 to 2023. The short run results reveal that GPR exhibits a symmetric relationship with the flow of FR across the BRIC economies. However, in the long run, an asymmetric association between GPR and the flow of FR is observed. These findings underscore the importance for policymakers, migrants, and recipients to consider the asymmetric and volatile nature of global geopolitical tension when formulating policies and making decisions regarding remittance transfers. Such insights contribute to more informed decision-making processes and effective policy interventions in the realm of remittance flows.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".