A young supernova selection pipeline for the LSST era
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT Early-time spectroscopy of supernovae (SNe), acquired within days of explosion, yields crucial insights into their outermost ejecta layers, facilitating the study of their environments, progenitor systems, and explosion mechanisms. Recent efforts in early discovery and follow-up of SNe have shown the potential insights that can be gained from early-time spectra. Surveys such as the Time-Domain Extragalactic Survey (TiDES), conducted with the 4m Multi-Object Spectroscopic Telescope (4MOST), will provide spectroscopic follow-up of transients discovered by the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). Current simulations indicate that early-time spectroscopic studies conducted with TiDES data will be limited by the current SN selection criteria. To enhance early-time SN spectroscopic studies from TiDES-like surveys, we propose a set of selection criteria focusing on young SNe (YSNe), which we define as SNe prior to $-10$ days before peak brightness. Utilizing the Zwicky Transient Facility transient alerts, we developed criteria to select YSNe while minimizing the sample’s contamination rate to 23 per cent. The developed criteria were applied to LSST simulations, yielding a sample of 694 Deep Drilling Field survey SNe and 56260 Wide Fast Deep survey SNe for follow-up. We demonstrate that our criteria enables the selection of SNe at early-times, enhancing future early-time spectroscopic SN studies from TiDES-like surveys. Finally, we investigated 4MOST-like observing strategies to increase the sample of spectroscopically observed YSNe. We propose that a 4MOST-like observing strategy that follows LSST with a delay of 3 days is optimal for a TiDES-like SN survey in terms of the number of classifiable spectra obtained, while a 1 day delay is most optimal for enhancing the early-time science in conjunction with our YSN selection criteria.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".