Ocean circulation, sea ice, and productivity simulated in Jones Sound, Canadian Arctic Archipelago, between 2003–2016
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Jones Sound is one of three critical waterways that regulate liquid exchange between the Arctic and northern Atlantic Oceans within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. However, to date, no high-resolution ocean circulation model exists to study the recent evolution of Jones Sound, meaning that our understanding of circulation within the sound is based either on temporally and spatially sparse oceanographic observations or on extrapolating conditions within Baffin Bay, which has a more dense observational record. To address this, we developed a high-resolution (1/120°, 0.9 km) Jones Sound configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model and performed coupled ocean-sea ice-biological productivity simulations between 2003–2016 to investigate recent changes within this waterway. We find that circulation through Lady Ann Strait, Fram Sound, and Glacier Strait comprise 75 %, 14 %, and 11 % of the volumetric transport into and out of Jones Sound, with tidal flushing enhancing the magnitude and temporal variability of volumetric transport through all three waterways. Warming Atlantic Water within western Baffin Bay flows into Jones Sound through Lady Ann Strait, becomes well-mixed, and circulates counter-clockwise, encroaching on the terminus of most tidewater glaciers that line the eastern periphery of the sound. Furthermore, we find that sustained atmospheric and oceanic warming drive an 11 % reduction in the summertime sea ice extent, decreased wintertime sea ice thickness, and delayed onset of sea ice refreeze in the fall (thus lengthening the amount of time in which Jones Sound is ice free). Tidal flushing through Cardigan Strait is critical in triggering meltback of sea ice across northern Jones Sound. Lastly, this decline in sea ice increases light availability and coupled with warming of the subsurface waters in Jones Sound, facilitates enhanced primary productivity at ocean levels down to ~21 meters depth. While we note that the modeled warming signal in Baffin Bay is overestimated compared to observations, the results presented here improve our general understanding of how this critical waterway might change under continued polar amplified global warming and underscores the need for sustained oceanographic observations in this region.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".