Identifying and Exploiting Alpha in Linear Asset Pricing Models with Strong, Semi-Strong, and Latent Factors
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The risk premia of traded factors are the sum of factor means and a parameter vector, we denote by ϕ, which is identified from the cross-sectional regression of αi on the vector of factor loadings, βi. If ϕ is non-zero, then αi are non-zero and one can construct “phi-portfolios” which exploit the systematic components of non-zero alpha. We show that for known values of βi and when ϕ is non-zero, there exist phi-portfolios that dominate mean–variance (MV) portfolios. This article then proposes a two-step bias corrected estimator of ϕ and derives its asymptotic distribution allowing for idiosyncratic pricing errors, weak missing factors, and weak error cross-sectional dependence. Small sample results from extensive Monte Carlo experiments show that the proposed estimator has the correct size with good power properties. This article also provides an empirical application to a large number of U.S. securities with risk factors selected from a large number of potential risk factors according to their strength and constructs phi-portfolios and compares their Sharpe ratios to MV and S&P portfolios.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it