Mapping wildfires in Canada with Landsat MSS to extend the National Burned Area Composite (NBAC) time series back to 1972
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background Satellite imaging has improved burned area mapping; however, few studies have taken advantage of the Multi-Spectral Scanner (MSS) in early Landsat satellites, which started acquiring data 10 years earlier than Thematic Mapper (TM). Aims To expand Canada’s National Burned Area Composite (NBAC) annual time series back to 1972 using MSS data and report annual statistics and national trends for 1972–2022. Methods Pre- and post-fire image composites were created using an improved collection of MSS data available from the Google Earth Engine. A Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) difference image was adaptively thresholded to extract burned areas, which were then vectorised. To assess accuracy, MSS fire polygons were compared with TM in a year of overlap. Key results Compared with TM, MSS polygons overestimated burned area by 5.6% when the relativised differenced NDVI was used, with significant upward trends for number of fires > 200 ha, fire season length and mean duration of fires. Conclusions MSS is a valuable data source for retrospective mapping of boreal and temperate forest fires where data from finer-resolution sensors are lacking. Implications After the addition of MSS-mapped fires, NBAC is the longest satellite-based time series of annual burned area from individually mapped fires in the world.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".