Improving dementia prognostication in cognitively normal older adults: conventional versus novel approaches to modelling risk associated with neuropsychiatric symptoms
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background Studies in cognitively normal individuals on associations between psychiatric symptomatology and incident dementia have not reliably differentiated psychiatric syndromes from neuropsychiatric symptoms (NPS) that represent neurodegeneration. Conventional modelling often overlooks symptom natural history. Mild behavioural impairment (MBI) is a syndrome that leverages later-life emergent and persistent NPS to identify a high-risk group for incident dementia. Aim We aimed to explore associations of MBI, and conventionally-measured NPS (NPS-not-MBI), with incident dementia in cognitively normal individuals and the cognitively normal subset with subjective cognitive decline (SCD). Method Using National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center data, MBI was operationalised by the absence of past psychiatric disorders (symptom emergence) and the presence of symptoms at >2/3 of pre-dementia visits (symptom persistence). Kaplan–Meier survival curves and Cox proportional hazards regressions modelled dementia incidence across NPS groups and MBI domains, adjusted for age, gender, education, race, APOE-ε4, and cognitive status. Results The sample comprised 1408 MBI (age 75.2 ± 9.5; 54.3% female), 5625 NPS-not-MBI (age 71.6 ± 8.8; 65.5% female) and 5078 No-NPS (age 71.2 ± 8.9; 67.6% female) participants. Compared with No-NPS, MBI participants had lower dementia-free survival ( P < 0.0001) and 2.76-fold greater adjusted dementia incidence rate (95% CI: 2.27–3.35, P < 0.001); incidence rate in NPS-not-MBI did not differ from No-NPS (hazard ratio 0.97, 95% CI: 0.82–1.14, P = 0.687). Of those with MBI who progressed to dementia, 76.0% developed Alzheimer's disease. Similarly, in the SCD subsample ( n = 3485), persons with MBI had 1.99-fold greater dementia incidence versus No-NPS (95% CI: 1.46–2.71, P < 0.001) while NPS-not-MBI did not differ from No-NPS (hazard ratio 0.92, 95% CI: 0.70–1.19, P = 0.511). Conclusions Incorporating natural history into assessment of psychiatric symptoms in accordance with MBI criteria enhances dementia prognostication and modelling.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".