Зарубежный опыт организации стратегического планирования и прогнозирования преступности в правоохранительной деятельности
Bibliographic record
Abstract
В статье рассмотрены системы прогнозирования и использования прогнозов в сфере национальной безопасности и правоохранительной деятельности в различных странах. Целью работы является изучение опыта организации стратегического планирования и применения прогнозирования в сфере национальной безопасности и правоохранительной деятельности зарубежных стран. Авторами показана история возникновения института стратегического планирования в зарубежных странах, опыт его становления в странах СНГ. Проводится анализ особенностей стратегического планирования и управления в США, Канаде и Европейском союзе. По мнению авторов, уголовная политика Российской Федерации в сфере борьбы с преступностью должна основываться на полноценном комплексном научно обоснованном прогнозировании с активным привлечением в процесс представителей гражданского общества и научного сообщества, что повысит качество разрабатываемых стратегий развития. Авторы делают вывод, что для России необходимо рационально оценивать мировой опыт в области стратегического планирования, который должен соответствовать реалиям российской действительности и поставленными перед страной целями социально-экономического развития. В процессе исследования применялись частнонаучные методы, принятые в юридической науке: формально-юридический, историко-правовой, сравнительно-правовой методы познания. The article discusses forecasting systems and the use of forecasts in the field of national security and law enforcement in various countries. The purpose of the work is to study the experience of the organization of strategic planning and the application of forecasting in the field of national security and law enforcement activities of foreign countries. The authors show the history of the emergence of the institute of strategic planning in foreign countries, the experience of formation in the CIS countries (the Commonwealth of Independent States). The analysis of the features of strategic planning and management in the USA, Canada and the European Union is carried out. According to the authors, the criminal policy of the Russian Federation in the field of combating crime should be based on a full-fledged, comprehensive scientifically based forecasting, with the active involvement of representatives of civil society and the scientific community in the process, which will improve the quality of the development strategies being developed. The authors conclude that it is necessary for Russia to rationally assess the world experience in the field of strategic planning, which should correspond to the realities of Russian reality and the goals of socio-economic development set for the country. In the course of the research, private scientific methods adopted in legal science were used: formal-legal, historical-legal, comparative-legal methods of cognition.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.007 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.012 | 0.007 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.051 | 0.017 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".