Federated Diabetes Prediction in Canadian Adults Using Real-world Cross-Province Primary Care Data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Integrating Electronic Health Records (EHR) and the application of machine learning present opportunities for enhancing the accuracy and accessibility of data-driven diabetes prediction. In particular, developing data-driven machine learning models can provide early identification of patients with high risk for diabetes, potentially leading to more effective therapeutic strategies and reduced healthcare costs. However, regulation restrictions create barriers to developing centralized predictive models. This paper addresses the challenges by introducing a federated learning approach, which amalgamates predictive models without centralized data storage and processing, thus avoiding privacy issues. This marks the first application of federated learning to predict diabetes using real clinical datasets in Canada extracted from the Canadian Primary Care Sentinel Surveillance Network (CPCSSN) without cross-province patient data sharing. We address class-imbalance issues through downsampling techniques and compare federated learning performance against province-based and centralized models. Experimental results show that the federated MLP model presents a similar or higher performance compared to the model trained with the centralized approach. However, the federated logistic regression model showed inferior performance compared to its centralized peer.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".