A predictive analytics framework for forecasting soccer match outcomes using machine learning models
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Predicting the outcome of a sports game is a favourite pastime for sports fans and researchers. The interest has intensified in recent years due to data availability, the development and successful implementation of machine learning algorithms, and the proliferation of internet gaming. This research focuses on developing a predictive analytics framework using machine learning or artificial intelligence models, as well as publicly available game results and weather data, to accurately predict outcomes of games in the English Premier League. Development efforts include experimentation using weather data and constructs such as fatigue and momentum. Ensemble techniques such as stacking or voting are also explored to improve the accuracy of basic machine learning models. The results are compared with those derived from the odds given by the major bookmakers to gauge the usefulness and potential applications in sports betting. • Developed machine-learning models to predict the outcome of soccer matches in the English Premier League. • Implemented four basic Machine learning algorithms as well as Light GBM, and Convolutional Neural Network. • Used Stacking and Voting algorithms to improve the accuracy of the predictive models. • Results showed promise compared to those derived from odds given by major bookmakers.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".