Mpox in Central Africa: complex epidemiology requires a constellation approach
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The declaration of smallpox eradication in 1980 remains one of the most important public health achievements in history. However, following the cessation of the global smallpox vaccination program there has been a continual increase of an immune-naive population resulting in a steadily increasing mpox risk, particularly in endemic areas 1 , 2 , 3 . Comparisons of mpox incidence in health zones with active mpox surveillance in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) showed an increase from 0.48 cases per 10,000 individuals per year from 1981–1986 up to 11.25 per 10,000 per year in 2006–2007, with the greatest burden of disease among younger age groups born after smallpox vaccine cessation. More recent national level analysis of mpox incidence has shown a continuing of this trend with increasing annual incidence from 2.96 per 100,000 individuals to 11.5 per 100,000 individuals from 2010 to 2023 4 , 5 . These observations provided a stark warning for the broader global health risk posed by mpox, more than a decade prior to the first public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) declarations for mpox in 2022.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".