Gestational diabetes mellitus and subsequent cardiovascular disease in a period of rising diagnoses: Cohort study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Evidence suggests that gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is associated with subsequent cardiovascular disease; however, it is unclear what impact changes in screening and diagnostic criteria have had on the association of GDM with long-term outcomes such as cardiovascular disease. The purpose of this study was to determine the association between GDM and subsequent cardiovascular disease during a period of rising gestational diabetes diagnosis in England. Specifically, associations were compared before and after 2008, when national guidelines supporting risk factor-based screening were introduced. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We conducted a cohort study using routinely collected data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to the Hospital Episode Statistics and Office for National Statistics databases. The study consisted of persons aged 15-45 years with a livebirth or stillbirth between 1998 and 2017 and without a history of cardiovascular disease or pre-pregnancy diabetes mellitus. Cox proportional hazards models, with propensity score weighting using matching weights, were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association of GDM diagnosis in the first recorded pregnancy with subsequent cardiovascular disease. RESULTS: Among 232 315 individuals, the incidence of cardiovascular disease was 6.6 per 1000 person-years among those with GDM and 2.2 per 1000 person-years among those without GDM over a mean follow-up duration of 5.8 years. The overall aHR, 95% CI was 1.91 (1.41, 2.60). Diagnosis of GDM increased over the study period, from 0.7% in 1998-99 to 5.3% in 2017. The effect size was not markedly different in the years before (1998-2007: adjusted HR 2.05, 95% CI 2.05 1.35, 3.12) and after 2008 (2008-2017: adjusted HR 1.79, 95% CI 1.15, 2.80). CONCLUSIONS: There was a strong association of GDM with cardiovascular disease after accounting for social and demographic factors and multiple comorbidities, and this association was present both before and after 2008, when national gestational diabetes screening criteria were established.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".