Surface water and flood-based agricultural systems: Mapping and modelling long-term variability in the Senegal river floodplain
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In the alluvial plains of large rivers, annual flooding is essential for numerous ecosystem services, including flood-based agriculture, biodiversity and groundwater recharge . Remote sensing provides increased opportunities to monitor surface water dynamics across large floodplains that are currently poorly captured by local hydrological monitoring and modelling due to data scarcity and the flat, heterogeneous topography. Combining the advances in earth observations with hydrological modelling and extensive in situ fieldwork , this research seeks to improve our understanding of surface water dynamics and associated agricultural practices in the Senegal river floodplain. 2813 mosaics from Landsat , MODIS and Sentinel-2 earth observations are created to map and monitor surface water variations using a site specific MNDWI classification adapted to complex, wetland environments. Validated against ground truth data, the approach is upscaled using cloud computing across this 2250 km 2 floodplain over 1999–2022. Statistical regression models are then developed to estimate flooded and cultivated areas based on upstream flow values since 1950 and analyse trends and exceedance probabilities over time. Results reveal extreme interannual variations in peak flooded areas, ranging from 30,000 ha and 720,000 ha between 1950 and 2022, while annual water modules fluctuate between 210 and 1460 m 3 /s. After 1994, flooded areas show partial recovery, with 95th percentile reaching 89,000 ha during 1994–2022 compared to 37,000 ha in 1972–1993. Flood-based agricultural practices cover between 13,000 ha and 133,000 ha over the same period, highlighting the pronounced variability faced by local rural communities. Occurrence maps and predictive models for annual flooded and cultivated areas based on upstream flows can support early warning tools, helping to prepare for extreme floods and droughts. These outputs are crucial to assess the impact of future climatic and anthropic changes in the region, including planned dams, on the amplitude of annual floods and their associated environmental benefits.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".