Regional patterns and climatic predictors of viruses in honey bee (Apis mellifera) colonies over time
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Honey bee viruses are serious pathogens that can cause poor colony health and productivity. We analyzed a multi-year longitudinal dataset of abundances of nine honey bee viruses (deformed wing virus A, deformed wing virus B, black queen cell virus, sacbrood virus, Lake Sinai virus, Kashmir bee virus, acute bee paralysis virus, chronic bee paralysis virus, and Israeli acute paralysis virus) in colonies located across Canada to describe broad trends in virus intensity and occurrence among regions and years. We also tested climatic variables (temperature, wind speed, and precipitation) as predictors in an effort to understand possible drivers underlying seasonal patterns in viral prevalence. Temperature was a significant positive predictor of the total number of viruses per sample, which was highest in British Columbia (mean = 5.0). Lake Sinai virus (LSV) was the most prevalent overall (at 89%) and had the highest infection intensity, at an average of 3.9 × 10 8 copies per bee. Acute bee paralysis virus was the least prevalent virus (at 4.7%) and had the lowest infection intensity (1.9 × 10 5 copies per bee). Surprisingly, including Varroa abundance as a covariate did not significantly improve model fit for any virus. All viruses, except Kashmir bee virus, varied by region, and one or more climatic variables were significant predictors for six of the nine viruses. Although climatic effects were often inconsistent among individual viruses, we show that climatic variables can be better predictors of virus intensity and occurrence than Varroa mite abundance, at least when infestation rates are low.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".