High Arctic lakes reveal accelerating ecological shifts linked to twenty-first century warming
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Arctic is among the most rapidly warming regions on Earth, and climate change has triggered widespread alterations to its cryosphere and ecosystems. Among these, high Arctic lakes are highly sensitive to rising temperatures due to the influence of ice cover on multiple limnological processes. Here, we studied the sediments of three lakes on northern Ellesmere Island (82.6°N), at the terrestrial limit of the Last Ice Area, to produce records of past environmental change. The colonization of the lakes by diatoms, as well as subsequent diversification and the appearance of planktonic forms, marked important ecological shifts due to warming temperatures and lengthening ice-free periods. A subsequent meta-analysis of 25 circumpolar diatom records revealed compositional shifts that paralleled those of temperature, including a notable acceleration since the turn of the twenty-first century that eclipses shifts previously observed since the mid-nineteenth century. Projections for sustained amplified warming imply that the accelerating changes we observed are likely to continue, as rising temperatures and lengthening ice-free seasons push Arctic lakes across further ecological thresholds.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".