Housing unaffordability and political preferences among young people in Europe
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Affordable housing is a pressing political problem that seems to be fueling social unrest among young people. Rising rents, expensive property prices, and stagnant wages leave young adults with few prospects of entering the housing market without intergenerational financial support. In this article, we examine the role of homeownership, housing unaffordability, and intergenerational transfers in explaining welfare preference and voting behavior of young European adults. We propose the emergence of a new growing interest group composed of financially overburdened young renters and mortgaged homeowners whose welfare is increasingly threatened. We bridged HFCS 2017 and ISSP 2016 datasets through statistical matching and used ordered and multinomial logit models to analyze these trends in Belgium, Germany, France, and Slovakia. We find that homeownership polarizes young adults in terms of their welfare support. Housing unaffordability, however, coalesces young homeowners and renters by increasing redistribution support.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".