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Record W4406054047 · doi:10.1016/j.jcjo.2024.12.003

Risk factors analysis and nomogram for predicting recurrence in periocular basal cell carcinoma

2025· article· en· W4406054047 on OpenAlexvenueno aff
Xincen Hou, Alexander C. Rokohl, Katharina Berndt, Senmao Li, Xiaojun Ju, Philomena A. Wawer Matos, Wanlin Fan, Ludwig M. Heindl

Bibliographic record

VenueCanadian Journal of Ophthalmology · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicNonmelanoma Skin Cancer Studies
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersChina Scholarship Council
KeywordsNomogramBasal cell carcinomaResectionMedicineBasal (medicine)CarcinomaOncologyBasal cellSurgeryInternal medicine

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

OBJECTIVES: Aim to develop a nomogram to effectively predict the potential for recurrence after surgical resection in patients with periocular basal cell carcinoma (BCC). METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study involving 329 patients with eyelid BCC. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional risk regression was used to screen for independent factors affecting BCC recurrence. Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis was performed to evaluate their impact on prognosis. On the basis of the results obtained from Cox regression analysis, a nomogram was established for the 1-, 2-, and 3-year recurrence-free survival (RFS) rates of BCC. RESULTS: In this study, a total of 15 patients out of 329 patients (4.6%) developed local recurrence. Multivariate analysis revealed that age, pathological type, previous history of BCC, and the number of surgeries were independent risk factors for BCC recurrence (p < 0.05, respectively). These risk factors were utilized to construct a nomogram to predict postoperative recurrence for these patients. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.867 (95% CI: 0.817-0.916), and the receiver operating characteristic curves were used to assess the discriminatory degree of the nomogram, with area under the curve values of 0.978, 0.870, and 0.916 at 1, 2, and 3 years, respectively. The calibration curves were basically fitted to the ideal curves. CONCLUSIONS: Age, pathological type, previous history of BCC, and the number of surgeries are significant risk factors for periocular BCC recurrence. Establishing a nomogram related to recurrence risk factors can more accurately predict the recurrence-free survival of individual patients.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.009
Threshold uncertainty score0.995

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.017
GPT teacher head0.284
Teacher spread0.267 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations2
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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