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Record W4406105198 · doi:10.1101/2024.12.27.24319702

Evaluation of Guillain-Barré syndrome following Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccination among Medicare Beneficiaries 65 Years and Older

2025· preprint· en· W4406105198 on OpenAlexfundno aff
Patricia C. Lloyd, P. Shah, Henry T. Zhang, Nimesh Shah, Narayan Nair, Zhiruo Wan, Mao Mu, Tainya C. Clarke, Meng Chen, Xinxin Lin, Rose Do, Jing Wang, Yue Wu, Yoganand Chillarige, Richard A. Forshee, Steven A. Anderson

Bibliographic record

VenuemedRxiv · 2025
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicPeripheral Neuropathies and Disorders
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersU.S. Food and Drug AdministrationHamilton Health Sciences FoundationU.S. Department of Health and Human Services
KeywordsMedicineGuillain-Barre syndromeVaccinationIncidence (geometry)PediatricsMedicaidDiagnosis codeMedical recordEmergency medicineHealth careInternal medicineImmunologyEnvironmental healthPopulation

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Importance The United States Food and Drug Administration conducts routine post-market surveillance of approved vaccines to identify and characterize health outcomes risk associated with vaccination. Pre-licensure clinical trials of RSVPreF3+AS01 and RSVPreF vaccines identified a small number of Guillain-Barré syndrome cases, a serious acute demyelinating disease, following vaccination. Objective To use Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Medicare Fee-for-Service administrative claims and Medicare Part D data to evaluate risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome following respiratory syncytial virus vaccination. Design, Settings, and Participants We studied vaccines administered between May 3, 2023, when vaccines were first approved, through January 28, 2024. This self-controlled case series study design compared the incidence of Guillain-Barré syndrome during risk intervals of 1–42 days following vaccination to the incidence in subsequent control intervals (43–90 days) among Medicare beneficiaries, aged 65 years and older, enrolled in Fee-for-Service and Medicare Part D. Exposures Receipt of a single dose of RSVPreF3+AS01 or RSVPreF vaccines. Outcomes Guillain-Barré syndrome was identified using diagnosis code G61.0 in the primary diagnosis position on hospital inpatient claims; returned cases were confirmed via medical record review using Brighton Collaboration’s case definition. Results We captured approximately 3.23 million Medicare beneficiaries that received respiratory syncytial virus vaccination during the study period. A total of 95 incident Guillain-Barré syndrome cases were observed following respiratory syncytial virus vaccination. In our chart-confirmed self-controlled case series analysis, we observed an increased incidence of Guillain-Barré syndrome following RSVPreF3+AS01 (IRR: 2.46, [95% CI: 1.19, 5.08]) with an attributable risk of 6.5 cases per 1 million doses. We observed an increased, yet not statistically significant, incidence of Guillain-Barré syndrome following RSVPreF (IRR: 2.02, [95% CI: 0.93, 4.40]) with an attributable risk of 9 cases per 1 million doses. Conclusion and Relevance Findings from this self-controlled case series study suggest an increased risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome during 1-42 days following respiratory syncytial virus vaccination, with fewer than 10 excess Guillain-Barré syndrome cases per 1 million vaccine doses among Medicare beneficiaries 65 years and older. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration maintains that the substantial benefits of RSV vaccination outweigh these identified risks associated with vaccines. Key Points Question Is there an increased risk of developing Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) following vaccination with RSVPreF3+AS01 (AREXVY®) and RSVPreF (ABRYSVO®) among Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years and older? Findings In a self-controlled case series analysis of Medicare beneficiaries with medical record review, we estimated the incidence rate ratio (IRR) comparing GBS in pre-specified risk and control intervals following vaccination with RSVPreF3+AS01 (IRR: 2.46, 95%CI: 1.19-5.08) or RSVPreF (IRR: 2.02, 95%CI: 0.93-4.40). RSV vaccines were associated with fewer than 10 excess GBS cases per 1 million vaccine doses. Meaning These findings suggest an increased risk of GBS following RSV vaccination.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.005
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.011
Threshold uncertainty score0.022

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0020.005
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.001
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0010.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0010.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.024
GPT teacher head0.305
Teacher spread0.280 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations14
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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