Pore pressure inhibits clustering of induced earthquakes in Western Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Induced earthquakes are manifestations of highly heterogeneous distributions of effective stress changes imparted by anthropogenic activities such as hydraulic fracturing and wastewater injection. It is critical to disentangle the mechanisms behind these earthquakes to better assess seismic risk. Here, a clustering methodology is applied to a catalog of 21,536 induced earthquakes detected during a 36-d hydraulic stimulation program in Western Canada. The results reveal that clustered events nucleate at short recurrence times generally less than 6 min. Notably, the clustered events are not characterized by short interevent distances as seen in regional-scale studies. Numerical modeling reveals that earthquakes cluster preferentially in regions of significantly lower pore pressure change ([Formula: see text]). Furthermore, clustered earthquakes exhibit significantly more chain-like topologies with decreasing [Formula: see text], in agreement with laboratory studies showing that fault materials transition to rate-strengthening behavior with increasing [Formula: see text]. Proxy estimates for pore pressure change suggest these observations are consistent across Western Canada, and highlight the potential for significant temporal segmentation of induced earthquake processes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".