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Record W4406110887 · doi:10.1073/pnas.2419630121

Pan-European atmospheric lead pollution, enhanced blood lead levels, and cognitive decline from Roman-era mining and smelting

2025· article· en· W4406110887 on OpenAlexaff
Joseph R. McConnell, Nathan Chellman, Andreas Plach, Sophia M. Wensman, Gill Plunkett, A. Stohl, Nicole-Kristine Smith, Bo Vinther, Dorthe Dahl‐Jensen, J. P. Steffensen, Diedrich Fritzsche, Sandra O. Brugger, Brandon T. McDonald, Andrew Wilson

Bibliographic record

VenueProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicHeavy Metal Exposure and Toxicity
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Manitoba
FundersUniversity of OxfordDesert Research InstituteSchweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen ForschungNational Science Foundation
KeywordsSmeltingRoman EmpireLead pollutionLead (geology)Air pollutionLead poisoningPollutionBlood lead levelGeographyPopulationEnvironmental healthArchaeologyMedicineMetallurgyLead exposureGeologyChemistry

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Ancient texts and archaeological evidence indicate substantial lead exposure during antiquity that potentially impacted human health. Although lead exposure routes were many and included the use of glazed tablewares, paints, cosmetics, and even intentional ingestion, the most significant for the nonelite, rural majority of the population may have been through background air pollution from mining and smelting of silver and lead ores that underpinned the Roman economy. Here, we determined potential health effects of this air pollution using Arctic ice core measurements of Roman-era lead pollution, atmospheric modeling, and modern epidemiology-based relationships between air concentrations, blood lead levels (BLLs), and cognitive decline. Findings suggest air lead concentrations exceeded 150 ng/m 3 near metallurgical emission sources, with average enhancements of >1.0 ng/m 3 over Europe during the Pax Romana apogee of the Roman Empire. The result was blood lead enhancements in young children of about 2.4 µg/dl above an estimated Neolithic background of 1.0 µg/dl, leading to widespread cognitive decline including a 2.5-to-3 point reduction in intelligence quotient throughout the Roman Empire.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Bench or experimental · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.598
Threshold uncertainty score0.419

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.001
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.026
GPT teacher head0.281
Teacher spread0.255 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designBench or experimental
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations14
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

Explore more

Same venueProceedings of the National Academy of SciencesSame topicHeavy Metal Exposure and ToxicityFrench-language works237,207