Why There Were Exceptional Recreational Coho Salmon Catches in the Strait of Georgia in 2023
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Strait of Georgia is a large inland sea between coastal British Columbia and Vancouver Island. Historically, it supported a large recreational and commercial fishery for coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and it was believed that the limiting factor for getting even higher catches was the number of juveniles entering the ocean. However, in the 1990s there were dramatic declines in escapement and by the end of the decade the coho salmon fisheries in southern British Columbia were closed. It is now known that changes in productivity were related to a combination of declining marine survival and changes in winter distribution of the sub-adults (fish that had spent one winter at sea). In this paper we examine a more recent change in the winter and early summer distribution of age 1+ coho salmon that has resulted in exceptional fishing in the Strait of Georgia in 2023 with similar opportunities expected in 2024. We provide a hypothesis for what is regulating the distribution of these fish and suggest that these results support the hypothesis presented by Beamish and Neville (2021) that there is a carrying capacity for juveniles in the strait and that these periods can change rapidly.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".